Xyoo 2022 yuav sai sai no ntau dua ib nrab, thiab cov nqi ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau nyob hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog qhov sib txawv ntawm thawj thiab thib ob.Nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, nyob rau hauv thawj kaum hnub ntawm lub peb hlis ntuj, lub high-qib soaring lag luam coj los ntawm lunni tsav LME tin, tooj liab, txhuas thiab zinc mus rau ib tug high school cov ntaub ntawv;Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, concentrated nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub rau hli ntuj, tin, aluminium, npib tsib xee thiabtooj liabsai sai qhib qhov kev poob qis, thiab qhov tsis yog-ferrous sector poob thoob plaws lub rooj tsavxwm.

Tam sim no, peb ntau yam nrog kev tawm tsam loj tshaj plaws los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv txoj haujlwm yog npib tsib xee (-56.36%), tin (-49.54%) thiab txhuas (-29.6%);Tooj liab (-23%) yog qhov tso tawm sai tshaj plaws ntawm lub vaj huam sib luag.Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev ua tau zoo, zinc kuj tseem tiv taus qhov poob thiab lagged qab nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob (tus nqi nruab nrab peb lub hlis twg tseem nce los ntawm 5% ntawm lub hli).Saib rau pem hauv ntej rau lub xyoo thib ob ntawm lub xyoo, kev hloov pauv ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj cai nyiaj txiag thiab kev rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev tom qab muaj kev sib kis yog ob qho tseem ceeb ntawm cov txheej txheem macro.Tom qab qhov kev poob qis hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cov hlau tsis muaj hlau tau pib mus rau txoj kev txhawb nqa mus ntev.Txoj kev lag luam bull txij li thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb yuav hloov cov qib siab thiab kev lag luam dav dav.Raws li cov khoom lag luam qis, tus nqi elasticity ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau nrog tooj liab raws li cov tub ntxhais yuav loj heev, ntog sai thiab nce nrawm, rov ua dua, thiab daim ntawv yuav zoo ib yam li sawtooth poob siab nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo 2006. Piv txwv. , tooj liab tuaj yeem hloov pauv ntawm $ 1000 ntau yam hauv lub sijhawm luv luv.

Nyob rau hauv cov huab cua macro, kev ua lag luam yog ib qho yooj yim rov ua dua: ua ntej, kev ua lag luam qhib thiab tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam rau Fed tus paj laum tus cwj pwm.Txawm hais tias Lub Koom Haum Saib Xyuas Kev Ruaj Ntseg yog kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi tam sim no, yog tias qhov chaw loj hlob tiag tiag raug puas tsuaj lossis kev lag luam tseem ceeb raug cuam tshuam, kev nruj nruj ntawm Fed tuaj yeem hloov kho txhua lub sijhawm.Tam sim no, kev ua lag luam cuam tshuam nrog tus nqi siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev nruj, uas zoo ib yam li "kev ntsuam xyuas kev ntxhov siab";Yog tias qhov ntsuas tus nqi nce siab tau muab tso rau hauv qhov chaw sai thiab qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov paj laum txiav rau xyoo tom ntej txuas ntxiv ferment, kev lag luam kev xav yuav rov qab sai sai;Qhov thib ob, nyob rau hauv keeb kwm ntawm normalization ntawm kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine, nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau kev lag luam los hloov nws tus cwj pwm ntawm kev nce nqi mus sij hawm ntev, thiab nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau tswj cov khoom ntawm natural gas nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv lub caij nplooj zeeg thiab lub caij ntuj no. xyoo no;Thib peb, kev khwv nyiaj txiag.Nws yuav tsum yog qhov nyuaj kom pom cov cim kev lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm Tebchaws Meskas nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis hauv ib nrab xyoo ntawm lub xyoo.Tom qab kev lag luam hauv tsev poob qis hauv lub quarter thib ob, tom qab kev kis mob rov qab nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav yog qhov kev xav tau zoo tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv lub xyoo.Peb ntseeg hais tias kev lag luam kev xav ntawm kev lag luam yuav hloov pauv sai hauv ib nrab xyoo.Txawm hais tias lub sij hawm luv luv poob yog loj, nws tsis tau nkag mus rau hauv lub lag luam dais.

Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev xav tau, cov yam ntxwv zoo ib yam ntawm cov hlau hauv paus yog cov khoom muag qis, uas tuaj yeem muab cov volatility txaus.Nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm domestic kev thov kom sov, cov khoom txwv nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo txiav txim lub zog txheeb ze ntawm non-ferrous hlau ntau yam.Peb ntseeg hais tias nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov tshiab tej yaam num thiab kev khiav hauj lwm muaj peev xwm, lub chaw muab kev pab rau npib tsib xee thiab txhuas yog kuj xoob, thiab npib tsib xee feem ntau yog gradual realization ntawm ntau yam dej num hauv Indonesia;Aluminium tsuas yog txhawb nqa kev ua haujlwm siab dua hauv tsev los ntawm kev tswj xyuas ob lub zog siv thiab ua kom txias thiab ruaj khov thiab tus nqi.Cov khoom siv ib puag ncig ntawmtooj liabthiab cov tin zoo ib yam, thiab muaj teeb meem loj mus sij hawm ntev, tab sis muaj qhov pom tseeb cov khoom lag luam nce xyoo no.Lead yog mov thiab nqi elasticity;Txawm li cas los xij, zinc yog qhov nruj ntawm qhov sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab kev thov hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob.Peb ntseeg hais tias nyob rau hauv lub nonferrous hlau sector, tooj liab feem ntau qhia txog kev ua lag luam kev xav thiab kev poob siab thoob plaws.Txoj haujlwm tam sim no yog txhawm rau nrhiav kev txhawb nqa qis dua.Xav txog cov hauv paus ntsiab lus, aluminium nickel tsis muaj zog thiab zinc muaj zog;Xav txog qhov txaus nyiam ntawm cov ntsiab lus, qhov poob ntawm cov tin yog loj, thiab cov kev lag luam mining thiab smelting yog rhiab heev rau tus nqi.Peb txaus siab rau zinc thiab tin.

Ntawm tag nrho, peb ntseeg tias npib tsib xee yog qhov tsis muaj zog thiab zinc yuav muaj zog;Tin tej zaum yuav yog thawj zaug kov hauv qab, thiab tooj liab thiab txhuas feem ntau yog nruab nrab kev vibration tom qab nrhiav kev txhawb nqa qis dua;Muaj zog hloov pauv nrog tooj liab raws li cov tub ntxhais yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.